Posts Tagged ‘Gambling’

You Can’t Cheat An (Intellectually) Honest Man

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

Last night I went to Atlantic City to see Cirque Dreams at the Taj. (It’s a really good show, btw, and the best seats in the house were only $35.)

Anyway, as I was walking through the casino on the way to the parking garage, it occurred to me — what do the following things have in common?

  1. Poker
  2. Day Trading
  3. Multi-Level Marketing
  4. Nigerian Scams

    The answer is:

    In each of these activities, someone who knows what they’re doing is making a whole bunch of money by taking advantage of someone who thinks they know what they’re doing.

    There was a time if you went to a bookstore and looked in the games section the large majority of books would be devoted to chess.  (Trust me on that one.)

    But now, most of the books are about poker.

    And a lot of geeks, having achieved varying levels of success at the chessboard, now dream of making it to the final table at the World Series of Poker.

    An obsession with chess can be sad.  But an obsession with poker can be downright life-destroying.

    I honestly believe that it is possible for someone with the right combination of time, intelligence and motivation to make a lot of money playing poker.  (I’m not so sure about day trading, MLM, or sending money to Nigeria.)  But here’s some advice:

    1. To become a money-making poker player is 1,000 times harder, and takes 1,000 times as much work, than you think.
    2. There is a ocean full of sharks who will be licking their chops once they realize you’re one of those guys who thinks he knows everything about Texas Hold’em because he’s read 3 books and owns a copy of Wilson Turbo poker software.
    3. Remember the all-too-true adage — if you’re sitting at a poker table and you can’t figure out who the sucker is, it’s you.  (And even if you’re pretty sure that guy sitting across from you is the sucker, you might want to do a reality check at the end of the evening when the “sucker” leaves with all  your money.)
    4. Finally, if you think long and hard, I’m sure you can come up with something better to do with the amount of time, money, and effort that it takes to become a good poker player.  (May I suggest blogging?)

    Good luck!

    Lottery Hilarity

    Friday, September 18th, 2009

    In Bulgaria, on September 6 and September 10, on live TV, a machine picked the same six winning lottery numbers:

    4 15 23 24 35 42

    (Wow — it’s almost like an episode of Lost!)

    An investigation is being launched — but you might well wonder if it’s really worth it, given that the second jackpot was under $140,000 total.  To add insult to injury, this princely sum had to be split up among 18 unbelievably optimistic ticket holders.

    According to the BBC News:

    A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million.  [emphasis added]

    Link to Article

    From this I conclude that one or more of the following is true:

    1. BBC News needs a better copy editor.
    2. BBC News needs a better mathematician.
    3. Bulgaria has some weird ass lottery where they leave out some numbers.
    4. You probably shouldn’t play the Bulgarian lottery.

    Professional Gamblers / Compulsive Gamblers

    Tuesday, January 6th, 2009

    I’m not a big fan of Asian stereotypes, but one thing’s for sure — an awful lot of Asian people *love* to gamble.

    A lot of Asian people (particularly Geeky Asian Guys) will claim that they are “professional” gamblers.  (I know, I should say “player” instead of “gambler.”)

    How can you tell the difference between a pro and a problem (I mean, amateur) gambler?

    First, a quick quiz:  Let’s say you are in a situation where you can bet any percentage of your bankroll on a 60% proposition (six times out of ten, you’re going to double your money, four times out of ten you’re going to lose your money).  What percentage of your bankroll should you bet?  (Answer at bottom.)

    Okay, here are some of my own criteria:

    1. Amateurs talk endlessly about gambling.  Pros tend to be pretty tight-lipped.
    2. Pros know when to quit.  Amateurs stay until they’ve lost all their money.
    3. Pros know how much money they’ve won or lost.  Amateurs guess.
    4. All gamblers lie.  Amateurs lie to themselves.
    5. Pros tend to be pretty picky about what games they’ll play in.  If something feels funny, they will walk.
    6. Amateurs love to brag about how much free stuff they get from casinos — believe me, all that “free” stuff has been paid for several times over.
    7. Amateurs look for the big jackpot.  Pros tend to be “nibblers” — they win a little here and there.
    8. Pros are patient.  They spend an awful lot of time watching and waiting.
    9. Amateurs often play out of their league.  Against pros.
    10. Amateurs borrow (or worse) to finance their gambling.

    The answer to the quick quiz:  I’m not sure there’s a precise mathematical answer to the question.  But if your answer is that you would bet 100% of your bankroll, then you are definitely an amateur.

    The Truth About Blackjack

    Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008

    With the recent release of the Hollywood feature “21,” Geeky Asian Guys everywhere are locking themselves in the bathroom for hours at a time.  No, it’s not what you think.  (Or maybe it is what you think…)

    They’re all practicing the art of card-counting — you know, that thing where you keep track of the cards at blackjack so that you can Beat the House, thereby (1) proving you’re not a loser, (2) pissing off your parents, and (3) becoming sexually irresistible, all at the same time.  (Well, two out of three isn’t so bad…)

    Here are my own thoughts about blackjack and card-counting:

    1. If you play too much blackjack, you may turn into a white person.  At least that’s what happened to the guy in ”21″ — he started out life as Chinese American Jeff Ma, and then he morphed into British-born Jim Sturgess.  Rumor has it that Ma wasn’t unduly perturbed by the part going to a Caucasian actor — in his view, it would have been way worse to have been portrayed by some Korean guy.
    2. The best way to avoid getting barred at a casino is to lose a lot of money.  Casinos love bad card counters.  Heck, if you’re a bad card counter, they’ll let you sit at the table with a Cray supercomputer.
    3. The correlative to No. 2 is that you don’t have to count cards at all to get barred.  Just split some tens, vary your bets between $5 and $500, and win a couple of thousand dollars — you’ll be on your way out the door in no time.
    4. The difference between being a good card counter and a bad card counter is surprisingly small — one or two mistakes per hundred hands will totally wipe out any edge you may have over the house.  But at least they’ll comp your room after you blow all your gas money.
    5. Let’s say you have a 1 percent edge over the house.  That means that, if your average bet is $25 per hand (that’s the green chips), you expect to win, on the average, 25 cents per hand.  At that rate, you might as well (gaak) apply yourself at college and become a CPA.
    6. The standard deviation is disturbingly high.  Come on — we all know some idiot playing a no-bust strategy who leaves winners at the end of the night, despite giving a 5+ percent edge to the house.
    7. In fact, the standard deviation is so high that, without unbelievable discipline, you will have no idea on any given night how much of your success (or failure) is due to luck or to your card-counting skills (or lack thereof).
    8. Don’t use your fingers or your chips to help you keep count.  Oh, and avoid talking to yourself.
    9. Further to No. 8 — if you flame out, don’t explain to everyone else at the table how come you should have won and they should have lost.
    10. Finally, if you manage to win a million dollars, give a couple of bucks to the guy next to you for gas money — it may be me.

    You can just kiss my Korean ass! Oh. Never mind…

    Thursday, June 19th, 2008

    Because of an inferior printing job, a number of scratch tickets sold by the New York State Lottery looked like winners when in fact they, well, weren’t.

    Perhaps the most disappointed ticket purchaser was a Flushing man named Hun Gun Byun, who thought he was a $2 million winner.  (I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that Mr. Byun is Korean…)

    Apparently, a two-digit number on Mr. Byun’s ticket was printed in such a way that only one of the two digits was visible, thus creating the visual impression of a winning match.  However, both the alpha abbreviation under the number as well as the ticket’s bar code told another story.

    WCBS-TV reports:

    He’s so distraught, he can hardly talk about it.

    “I can’t talk about it,” said Byun.

    http://wcbstv.com/seenon/kirstin.cole.consumer.2.752687.html

    In other news, not one, but *two* registered sex offenders have won multimillion dollar jackpots in 2008, one in Massachusetts ($10M), and the other in Michigan ($57M):

    http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/06/mich-sex-offend.html